Observations
How to Validate a New Business Hypothesis Without a Budget: The SellPromo Method
You have a list of ten promising growth ideas on your desk: entering a new market, launching a product, or releasing a breakthrough feature. They all look reasonable. However, your team only has the budget and time to pursue one. How do you make the right bet? How do you choose the idea that will actually take off without wasting millions of dollars and months of work on a failed project?
Traditional approaches offer two options, both of which are flawed. One option is to commission an expensive and lengthy marketing study, which often produces socially acceptable responses rather than an accurate picture. Or, you could spend six to nine months developing an MVP (minimum viable product), only to later discover that no one needs it.
At SellPromo, we use a different approach based on a simple principle: “Sell, don’t ask.” We believe that the fastest and most honest way to validate any business hypothesis is to secure a real commitment from a potential customer before building the product.
This article is a simplified, step-by-step description of our four-step, “zero-budget” validation method. We will demonstrate how to test even the boldest idea without writing a single line of code or spending a dime on advertising. It is a guide for making strategic decisions based on facts, not faith.
Hypothesis Sprint: Transforming an Idea into a Measurable Statement
Every failed project begins with ambiguity, such as a vague idea like “Let’s enter the fintech market” or “Let’s build an AI feature.” These ideas cannot be tested because they lack clear success or failure criteria. Therefore, the first step in our method is to transform the vague idea into a precise, measurable scientific statement.
To do so, we use a simple yet rigorous formula. Before testing, every hypothesis must be structured as follows:
“We believe that [segment X] will use [product Y] to solve [problem Z] because it will provide them with [value W]. We will consider the hypothesis validated if [success criterion].
Let’s break it down. [Segment X] is the clearest possible audience definition (not “banks,” but “top-50 commercial banks”). Product Y is the name of your feature or solution. Problem Z is the customer’s pain articulated in their language. [Value W] is a measurable result (e.g., “reduce costs by 20%”).
The most important element, however, is the [Success Criterion]. It transforms your idea into a hypothesis. You define what will be considered a win and what will be considered a failure upfront. For example: “We will consider the hypothesis validated if three out of ten companies we interview sign a letter of intent (LOI) to participate in a closed, paid pilot.” Such a criterion leaves no room for interpretation.считать
Although this first step is the most intellectually challenging, it saves the most money. It forces you to think like a scientist before acting like a salesperson. A clearly formulated hypothesis is your experimental plan; without it, everything that follows is meaningless.
MVO (Minimum Viable Offer): Creating the “bait”
Now that you have a clear hypothesis, the next step is to create the “bait.” The next step is to create the “bait” to test it. Note: We are not creating an MVP (Minimum Viable Product), which takes time. We are creating an MVO (Minimum Viable Offer), a minimum viable offer. Its purpose is not to work, but to look convincing.
What is it? It can be a simple five-slide presentation, a one-page PDF, or a basic landing page. No coding is required. Its structure is simple:
- Offer: Call to action.
- Problem: The pain described in the customer’s language.
- Our vision of the solution is a conceptual description of your product or feature.
- Value: the answer to “What will the client get?” expressed in measurable outcomes.
- How it works (simplified): Two to three mockup screenshots that create a sense of reality.
“Combat Reconnaissance”: Seeking Truth, Not Compliments
You now have a hypothesis and a “bait.” Next is what we call “combat reconnaissance.” Your goal is to arrange 10–15 short online meetings with people who clearly match your target segment.
The keys to success are honesty and a “student” mindset. You are not selling. You are asking for expertise. Your message on LinkedIn or via email should sound something like this: “Hello John, I see that you are one of the leading experts in [industry]. Our company is researching a new solution for Problem Z. We would greatly appreciate it if you could spare 20 minutes to provide feedback on our concept.”
The Commitment Test: Separating “Interesting” from “Needed”
This is the core of the entire method. After delivering a 15-minute presentation of your MVO and receiving feedback, traditional research would conclude with a simple “Thank you for your opinion.” Our approach, however, only begins there.
You must test the hypothesis with a real commitment. At the end of the meeting, say: “Thank you for the valuable comments. We are currently selecting three to five partner companies for a closed, paid pilot. Based on what you’ve seen, is solving this problem important enough to you to consider participating in the pilot?”
Their answer is your validation result. A polite “Very interesting. We’ll keep an eye on it” means no. The hypothesis is not validated. However, a response such as “Yes, this sounds like a priority — please send the terms” is a yes. Only a client’s willingness to make even a minimal commitment proves demand.
Think like a scientist, act like a salesperson.
Formulate a measurable hypothesis. Package it into an MVO. Approach the market as a student. Validate interest through real commitments. This simple, four-step method enables you to make strategic growth decisions based on facts rather than assumptions. Before writing the first line of code or spending the first dollar on advertising, you can obtain reliable confirmation of your idea: a customer’s willingness to support it. This is the most effective way to reduce business risk.
